Over the past couple of days, I have seen some media outlets hype up the situation with Hurricane Ida and a potential low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. Some of these have been "off the wall", so to speak, and I've had a number of persons ask me about them. Before I begin, I would like to point out that named storms in November are not all that rare. We've had them three of the last four years. Second, we've never had a named storm make landfall along the upper-Texas coast. So climatologically speaking, history is on our side.

Here is my take on what is happening and likely to happen in the tropics over the coming week: Ida, or the remnants of Ida, quite likely will enter the Gulf of Mexico next week. And, yes, a fairly decent low pressure center may spin up in the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday or so. In fact, the low, a steep pressure gradient from a high pressure ridge centered over the eastern U.S, and an astronomical high tide, could bring high tides (I would not be totally surprised to see levels running 3 or more feet above normal by Sunday or Monday). We may also see fairly stiff easterly winds and have a decent chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

But, at this point in time, the system in the Gulf is expected to remain non-tropical (extra-tropical is the precise term). In that sense, it will not be much different than other cold season Gulf lows and probably somewhat typical of what we are almost certain to see again this winter with an El Niño pattern in place.

There is some chance that the low could acquire tropical characteristics and maybe even become a "sub-tropical" storm before moving towards the Louisiana coast. But, this isn't expected to happen at this time, and would probably make very little difference in what weather we would be likely to see as a result of the system. High wind shear levels and water temperatures in the 70s will tend to inhibit such development.

As for Hurricane Ida, the current thinking is that the storm will be greatly weakened by its movement over Nicaragua and Honduras. It may re-intensify some as it re-emerges into the northwest Caribbean, but redevelopment of a system is a slow and questionable process even when conditions are ideal. They should not be ideal for Ida or its remnants.

Right now, the best guess is that Ida will either become a sub-tropical storm or a non-tropical low and eventually be swept northeast towards Florida, after an initial turn towards the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Given projected wind shear levels over the Gulf of Mexico next week, it is difficult to see much more development than that.

To put this in perspective, we could see some tropical weather over the coming seven days, though the odds are against any true tropical storm or hurricane activity in our area. Quite probably we will see stormy weather by Sunday or Monday and, in the parlance of forecasters, some interesting weather, but certainly nothing at all like some of the dire scenarios that have been tossed around the past couple of days.

Below are links to satellite views of Hurricane Ida, forecast maps for the next seven days, and a graphic showing wind shear levels and tendencies:

Satellite View of Ida

3 to 7 Day Forecast Maps

Wind Shear Tendency Map