Residents of low-lying areas of Galveston County, Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula should be aware that we will probably see another round of high tides by Friday as a coastal low, an approaching upper-level disturbance, and high pressure off to our east produce strong easterly winds along the upper-Texas coast. Accordingly the National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Statement for the area, calling for tides running 1-2 feet above usual levels.
Fortunately, the system which is expected to develop to the south near the Coastal Bend, should move fairly rapidly off to the east. This will limit the duration of the high tides and the amount of rainfall here locally and ensure that we get much improved weather for the weekend.
Below is a link to a forecast map for the end of the week, along with another link to a map showing projected rainfall totals:
The public debate over global warming and climate change generates plenty of noise, but much less in the way of accurate information.
Fortunately, residents of our area will have the opportunity to hear a renowned climate scientist talk about the subject, as it relates to Texas weather, and to ask questions about any and all aspects of the subject.
The occasion will be a lecture this coming Thursday (November 19) by Dr. Gerald R. North, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Sciences and Oceanography from Texas A&M University, who will discuss: "GLOBAL WARMING – LONE STAR IMPACTS".
The event, co-hosted by the Houston area Chapter of the American Meteorological Society and the British Consulate, will begin at 6:00 pm at the Canyon Cafe at 5000 Westheimer, Suite 250 in Houston with a reception, followed by the lecture at 7:00 pm. Both events are open and free to the general public. Dinner will be available as well, but must be purchased by those who wish to eat there.
The presentation will focus on and answer many questions: Is climate change is coming to Texas and how much will Texas be affected by global warming? Will there be more hurricanes? What kind of climate change does Texas need to be ready for?
Dr. North has a PhD in Theoretical Physics from the University of Wisconsin, 1966. In the mid-1970's Dr. North worked at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, where he won the NCAR Outstanding publication Award. He later joined the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center as a research scientist. While there he won the NASA Medal for Scientific Achievement.
In 1986, Dr. North joined the faculty of Texas A&M University with the rank of distinguished professor. He was head of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences from 1995-2003. In 2006 became Chairman of the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Reconstruction of Surface Temperatures over the last 2000 Years. Additionally, Dr. North is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, The American Geophysical Union, and The American Meteorological Society. He was recipient of the Jule G. Charney Award of the American Meteorological Society in 2007 for work on climate modeling, atmospheric statistics and satellite program development.
This is a great opportunity for those who might have some concerns on how climate change could impact those of us living in Texas, particularly along coastal areas. I certainly plan to attend and I hope that many others will as well.
Although our current spell of delightfully mild weather is likely to persist through the weekend, you might want to keep a sweater or jacket handy. The coolest weather so far this season is likely to move in by Monday.
Temperatures early Tuesday and Wednesday could dip into the 40's, even on Galveston Island, and it is not out of the question that the mercury could dip below the 40 degree mark over some parts of the Houston-Galveston area before the coldest air moves east.
The cold front, combined with a low pressure trough moving in from the west, may bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the County by Sunday or Monday, though rainfall amounts are not likely to be excessive with this particular system.
By the way, if you don't like chilly weather, long-term forecasts call for a quick warm-up by Thursday and Friday.
Below are links to forecast maps and expected low temperature for early next week:
High tides rolling in across Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula and a hurricane in the Gulf with a three-lettered name beginning with an "I". Though the two events weren't directly related, it certainly was enough to give some Ike-survivors a touch of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder.
A few facts about tropical storms and hurricanes in November may have helped alleviate those fears to some degree.
First, while tropical storms or hurricanes are not unusual in November, with one appearing on almost every other year on average, a named storm has never struck the upper-Texas coast during the month (with reliable records going back to 1851).
Second, most tropical storms that do make landfall in the U.S. during the month of November end up striking Florida.
Third, while hurricanes do appear in the Tropical Atlantic Basin in about one out of every five Novembers, only four have made landfall on the U.S. mainland with hurricane intensity since 1900. All hit Florida.
Fourth, there have been 7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) known to form in the Atlantic Basin during November. None have hit the U.S. mainland.
The last major November hurricane was Hurricane Paloma last year, which attained Category 4 status briefly before striking Cuba as a destructive Category 2. Remnants of the storm did cause some flooding in Florida, but it was no longer an organized system.
Probably the most threatening November hurricane as far as the Texas coast goes was Hurricane Jeanne, which formed in the western Caribbean on November 7, 1980, not far from where Ida developed. By November 11, Jeanne suddenly turned west in the central Gulf of Mexico and intensified briefly into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100-mph. This sudden move in the general direction of Texas with a projected long-term turn to the northwest put the upper-Texas coast at risk. At that point, gale warnings were issued for the northwest Gulf Coast from Port O'Connor, Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi. By the November 13, however, a high pressure system to the north shifted east, wind shear levels increased, and Jeanne suddenly weakened. As Jeanne continued to weaken a cold front pushed into the Gulf from the west and by November 16, the system had dissipated completely, though high tides of 2-4 feet above normal still visited the Texas coast.
So, at least from a historical and climatological point of view, named storms are exceedingly unlikely to visit the upper-Texas coast, in part due to cooler Gulf waters in the northwest Gulf of Mexico and to typical upper-level wind patterns this late in the season, which enhance wind shear and tend to steer any storms far to our east.
So, for me, November is a very fine month indeed for those of us residing in the Galveston area!
Below are some links to maps on hurricane probabilities and patterns for November as well as tracks for Hurricane Jeanne in 1980 and Hurricane Paloma, last year:
As expected, Ida has continued weakening as it moves into cooler waters and encounters increasing wind shear levels. At 9 am, EST Ida was downgraded to a tropical storm. As a consequence, Hurricane Warnings have been discontinued, but Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Ancilla River in Florida.
Currently, sustained winds were down to 70-mph with further weakening expected prior to landfall early Tuesday. At 9 am, EST Ida was located near 26.5 N and 88.3 W. The system was moving north-northeast at 17-mph with a central pressure of 996 MB (29.41"). While weakening is expected to continue, Ida should still make landfall near, or just east of Pensacola, as a strong tropical storm.
As anticipated, Ida is falling victim to the twin obstacles of cooler water temperatures and high wind shear levels, which is one reason why land-falling hurricanes are so rare in November (Check back for the planned blog on November hurricanes).
Below are links to sites illustrating the factors suppressing Ida at this time:
The Coastal Flood Statement was upgraded to a Coastal Flood Warning, which means that higher than normal tides are likely later today and tomorrow. A surface low in the western Gulf of Mexico, an approaching upper-level trough moving into Texas from the west, and high pressure to our east is likely to produce brisk winds and elevated tides along the upper-Texas coast.
The highest tides are anticipated tonight with tide levels running from 3.8 to 4.6 feet from the West End of Galveston Island and along the Bolivar Peninsula, with some minor flooding possible in these areas.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for a part of the northern Gulf Coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
The watch, which does not include the city of New Orleans, means that hurricane conditions could materialize within 36-hours. At 9 am, EST Hurricane Ida was located near 21.2 N and 86.0 W. Sustained winds remained at 90-mph with some strengthening still likely today and weakening likely tomorrow. Ida was moving northwest at 10-mph.
While the consensus among forecasters is that Ida will lose hurricane strength before impacting the U.S. mainland, the Watch has been issued as a precaution and notice to those with interest along the northern Gulf Coast to monitor the storm closely. Latest track projections suggest landfall near Mobile, Alabama on Tuesday morning as a strong extra-tropical (non-tropical) low with sustained winds in excess of 50-mph.
Generally, it is felt that Ida will gradually weaken on Monday and Tuesday, eventually becoming extra-tropical in nature and merging with a cool front by mid-week. Wind shear levels are expected to increase across the Gulf of Mexico as an upper-level trough (the same one moving across Texas tonight and tomorrow) moves east into the region. This should play a significant role in weakening Ida and eventually steering it northeast or east.
Below are links to a satellite view of Ida, the latest wind shear analysis, and the official five-day forecast track for Ida:
Over the past couple of days, I have seen some media outlets hype up the situation with Hurricane Ida and a potential low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. Some of these have been "off the wall", so to speak, and I've had a number of persons ask me about them. Before I begin, I would like to point out that named storms in November are not all that rare. We've had them three of the last four years. Second, we've never had a named storm make landfall along the upper-Texas coast. So climatologically speaking, history is on our side.
Here is my take on what is happening and likely to happen in the tropics over the coming week: Ida, or the remnants of Ida, quite likely will enter the Gulf of Mexico next week. And, yes, a fairly decent low pressure center may spin up in the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday or so. In fact, the low, a steep pressure gradient from a high pressure ridge centered over the eastern U.S, and an astronomical high tide, could bring high tides (I would not be totally surprised to see levels running 3 or more feet above normal by Sunday or Monday). We may also see fairly stiff easterly winds and have a decent chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
But, at this point in time, the system in the Gulf is expected to remain non-tropical (extra-tropical is the precise term). In that sense, it will not be much different than other cold season Gulf lows and probably somewhat typical of what we are almost certain to see again this winter with an El Niño pattern in place.
There is some chance that the low could acquire tropical characteristics and maybe even become a "sub-tropical" storm before moving towards the Louisiana coast. But, this isn't expected to happen at this time, and would probably make very little difference in what weather we would be likely to see as a result of the system. High wind shear levels and water temperatures in the 70s will tend to inhibit such development.
As for Hurricane Ida, the current thinking is that the storm will be greatly weakened by its movement over Nicaragua and Honduras. It may re-intensify some as it re-emerges into the northwest Caribbean, but redevelopment of a system is a slow and questionable process even when conditions are ideal. They should not be ideal for Ida or its remnants.
Right now, the best guess is that Ida will either become a sub-tropical storm or a non-tropical low and eventually be swept northeast towards Florida, after an initial turn towards the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Given projected wind shear levels over the Gulf of Mexico next week, it is difficult to see much more development than that.
To put this in perspective, we could see some tropical weather over the coming seven days, though the odds are against any true tropical storm or hurricane activity in our area. Quite probably we will see stormy weather by Sunday or Monday and, in the parlance of forecasters, some interesting weather, but certainly nothing at all like some of the dire scenarios that have been tossed around the past couple of days.
Below are links to satellite views of Hurricane Ida, forecast maps for the next seven days, and a graphic showing wind shear levels and tendencies:
A UTMB retiree, he produces a daily weather forecast for Galveston.com, offers courses on various aspects of climate through the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at UTMB and serves as a lecturer for the Elder Hostel program at Texas A&M-Galveston.
Stan lives in Galveston with his wife, Margaret, who is a local artist, certified master gardener and master naturalist.
