UPDATE (10:35 am): The tropical low in the southwest Caribbean has been upgraded to Tropical Depression #11. At 10:00 am, EST the newly designated depression was located near 11.6 N and 82.0W. Sustained winds were at 35-mph and central barometric pressure was 1006 MB (29.71"). The system was moving northwest at 8-mph. The depression is expected to make landfall on the Nicaraguan coast as a tropical storm, but then weaken before it moves back out over the Caribbean. Here is a link to the five-day forecast track:

Five Day Forecast Track

A well-organized low in the southwest Caribbean, east of Costa Rica, is likely to develop into tropical depression #9 or Tropical Storm Ida today. Satellite images and surface reports indicate that the system may already have intensified and reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the area this afternoon.

Although the system, currently mostly stationary, is expected to drift north or north-northwest over time into the northwest Caribbean, overall weather patterns suggest that it is highly unlikely to impact the northwest Gulf of Mexico.

Named storms in November are not that rare. Three of the last four seasons have had named storms, including Paloma last year. Fortunately, a named storm has never struck the upper-Texas coast in November.

Meanwhile, closer to home moisture over the southern Bay of Campeche is likely to move north by this weekend, bringing clouds and increase humidity levels back to the area. An advancing cool front and low pressure trough may help to set-off showers or thunderstorms by late Saturday or Sunday.

Below are links to a long-term forecast map, showing the possible location of the system in seven days. Also, is a link to latest upper-level wind shear patterns. As long as strong wind shear remains of the Gulf of Mexico, conditions here remain very unfavorable for any tropical activity.

Three to Seven Day Forecast Maps

Wind Shear Conditions